ANALYSIS OF POLICE VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS IN MOZAMBIQUE (1994–2025)

Introduction: Since the first democratic elections in 1994, Mozambique has witnessed recurring cases of police repression against civilians who peacefully express their indignation or discontent. The most frequent practices include intimidation, illegal use of lethal and non-lethal force, arbitrary arrests, and, in extreme cases, fatalities.  Objective: This study aimed to identify the spatial distribution of violence cases by province and year, as well as model the probability of their occurrence. Materials and Methods: The analysis used census data (n=4,592) sourced from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the U.S. International Data Base. Using ACLED’s notes variable and event subtype, we created two new variables: reason and violence, a binary (0 = no police violence; 1 = moderate/severe violence). Data were analyzed in R/RStudio at a 5% significance level using the ggplot2 and gamlss packages, with population offsets per province. Results: Results revealed that Maputo City recorded the highest number of cases (>100), followed by Maputo Province and Zambézia (51–100 cases). Sofala, Cabo Delgado, and Nampula, 31-50 cases, while the remaining provinces < 30. Over time, violent repression showed growth, while moderate violence and cases without repression maintained similarly low trends. The binomial logistic model indicated that elections reduce the likelihood of police violence by 76.7% compared to violence stemming from other causes (excluding demands for better working conditions or cost of living (WC/CL)). Violence related to WC/CL demands showed no significant difference in occurrence probability compared to other non-electoral causes. The average socioeconomic dependency index correlated with a 3% reduction in police violence levels. Conclusion: The study concludes that repression is not confined to electoral contexts; however, since the first democratic elections, the number of police violence has increased during election years and remains concentrated in regions with stronger support for opposition parties.

Keywords: Police violence, human rights, political repression.