Última alteração: 2025-07-17
Resumo
Introduction: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are frequent in the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), where they significantly impact countries in south-eastern Africa, particularly Madagascar and Mozambique, causing extensive damage and socio-economic consequences. The climatology of TCs in the SWIO including aspect such as formation, track, size and landfall has been investigated. While several studies have addressed TC behaviour across the broader basin, there is a lack of focused research on RI processes within the SWIO, particularly for TCs within the Mozambique Channel(MCH). Our preliminary observations suggests that TCs may undergo RI within the MCH prior to landfall, highlighting the need for further investigation in this region. Objectives: Identify the key factors that contribute to RI and examine the mechanisms driving RI in the MCH. Methodology:We conduct numerical simulations of three TCs, Kenneth and Idai (2019), and Gombe (2022) using the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS), statistical methods are applied to compare multiple high-resolution simulations, and analyses on the internal dynamics that drive RI are conducted. Result: Our result suggests the environmental conditions favorable for RI are observed in Mozambique Channel, high sea surface temperature, weak vertical wind shear, high relative humidity and upper-level divergence. Conclusion: This study showcases the environmental conditions favorable for RI and possible internal conditions along with other results from our simulations. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for operational forecasting and TC monitoring, with implications for both regional and local weather service.
Key-words: Tropical cyclone, Mozambique channel, Rapid Intensification