Contextualization: Efforts to expand electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa are increasing, but planning requires accurate demand estimates, which are challenging due to the lack of historical data, especially in rural areas. While scenario approaches are commonly used to project future demand, their accuracy depends heavily on assumptions.

Objective: This study aims to project electricity access and appliance adoption from 2025-2050 in grid-connected and off-grid areas of Mapai District, Mozambique.

Methodology: The projections are based on the Logistic Growth (S-curve) Model. Inputs include current and maximum appliance ownership, number of electricity connections (actual and maximum), and growth rates. Households are categorized into Tiers according to the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework, and productive users are grouped by service type. Projections are made every five years to capture population growth and economic development dynamics.

Results: Results show faster electrification in grid-connected areas, with households reaching Tiers 4-5 due to higher system capacity, enabling use of diverse appliances. Off-grid areas progress more slowly, with most households starting at Tier 1 and gradually transitioning to Tiers 2-3. Appliance adoption is slow in the initial years post-electrification, then accelerates and flattens as saturation is approached. Appliance uptake in households is constrained by income and local market availability: basic appliances (bulbs, phones, radios) saturate within 5-10 years, followed by fans and TVs (15-20 years), while high-power appliances (refrigerators, stoves) show slower adoption due to cost. Productive uses and community institutions show faster adoption, reaching saturation quickly after electrification, as equipment is usually installed at establishment. The number of productive users increases significantly, though most are micro and small enterprises (kiosks, stands, mini-shops), demanding low electricity amounts.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that grid-connected areas experience faster and higher levels of electricity access and appliance uptake, whereas off-grid solutions require affordable financing to accelerate transitions beyond basic access. This is essential for electricity demand estimation to support rural electrification planning.

Key-words: Logistic growth model, rural localities, electrification, end-use sectors