By: Teklu Gebretsadik and Benedito Cunguara

Email: gebretsadikteklu@yahoo.com, Cunguara@gmail.com

Abstract:

In Mozambique, agriculture has been based on poorly resourced farmers over the past decades and is the mainstay of the economy and livelihood activity in rural areas. To find methods for raising productivity, this study was initiated to examine the relationship between maize production with cropped areas and its trends in production for the past 20 years based on panel data. This study was done by developing a fixed-effects pooled data model to estimate the link between the area and maize production. The study variables, namely, cropped area and maize production, were found modelled. The relationship between maize production and area in log trends was investigated to whether progress has been made in production for the past 20 years in Mozambique based on panel data.  The Hausman, Breusch Pagan, and Wald tests were used and with (Rho of 76%), the fixed effect model showed high significance at 0.05 level of pooled OLS model that fits the data well (F = 87.84 and p <0.0000) regression analysis of study variables with notable changes observed in the cropped area and maize yield (p <0.0000). The area under maize production's slope coefficient was found highly significant, indicating that the cropping area under maize was a key factor in variations in maize production.  Accordingly, for every unit increase in area, the production would be increased by 4%, and for every change in area by 1%, the production of maize increases by 0.715%. The model's R² value as determined by statistical analysis, is 0.9518.  The study assured the area cropped significantly influenced the production of maize, showing the trend of production and area cropped are not significantly the same, so that further research into the hidden green revolution in maize production, particularly in Mozambique and similar African regions, is critical for informing policy and refining input application and resource allocation strategies.

KEYWORDS: Fixed effect model, Maize production trends, Technology adoption, cropped area