Understanding the impact of climatic factors on malaria incidence is crucial for the development of effective control and prevention strategies. This study investigates the associations between climatic variables, such as temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, and malaria incidence in Beira City from 2012 to 2020. Using a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), the study also examines the potential impact of climate change on future malaria burden under different emission scenarios. The results reveal significant associations between climatic factors and malaria incidence, with seasonality playing an important role. Rainfall in the past three weeks and relative humidity in the past four weeks positively impacted malaria incidence, while the temperature in the past week and time variables showed a negative effect. The projections of malaria incidence under different emission scenarios suggest that malaria incidence is expected to decrease under all three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.6, and RCP8.5) by the end of 2030. The findings highlight the importance of considering climatic factors in malaria control and prevention strategies and provide valuable insights for public health officials and policymakers to understand better the potential impact of climate change on malaria transmission.