Introduction: Seasonal climate variability impacts the health of millions of population around the world (1,2). The incidence of malaria increase in many regions of the world, mainly in Mozambique, as a result of variability in rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures (3). Malaria is a Public Health problem in Mozambique (4).

Methodology: Weekly Malaria data were extracted (2008 – 2022) from the Weekly Epidemiological Bulletin provided by Ministry of Health of Mozambique and climate data were derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) was used to determine the correlation between rainfall, minimum and maximum air temperature and weekly malaria incidence. We used the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNMs) to estimate the favorable thresholds of climatic variables to increase the relative risk (RR) of weekly malaria incidence. The “Generalized Additive Model (GAM)” was applied to estimate positive cases of malaria in the rainy season (October – March) in Mozambique.

Results: In the northern region of the country, the province of Nampula had the highest positive correlation for the increase of malaria with the rainfall at lags around 4 and 5 (r=0.47), mainly when the rainfall reaches 250 mm (RR=85%) and 15 ^oC (RR=75%) of minimum in a given epidemiological week. In the central region, positive cases of malaria are severely impacted by  rainfall in Zambézia province, at lags 3 or 5 (r=0.20&r=0.18) and reach their peak prevalence of the disease when 400 mm of rainfall (RR=88%) is recorded. In the southern region, the province of Inhambane increased the malaria incidence when the rainfall was at lags 1 and 11 (r=0.80&r=0.90) and when it reaches 450 mm (RR=98%).

Conclusion: Overall, variability of climate factors tends to increase the incidence of malaria in all provinces of the country, although the provinces of Nampula and Zambézia are the most affected.

Keywords: Modeling; Climate; Malaria.