Conferências UEM, XII CONFERÊNCIA CIENTÍFICA DA UEM 2023: Investigação, Extensão e Inovação no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas

Tamanho da fonte: 
Long memory and trend in time series of precipitation in Mozambique
Jone Lucas Medja Ussalu

Última alteração: 2023-08-01

Resumo


Abstract: Many climate studies in Mozambique have clearly identified signals of climate change, especially changes in the extreme temperatures. Regarding precipitation, there is still a gap on the knowledge of how it is behaving due to both internal and external factors in the climate system. This study investigates the existence of long term correlations and trend in time series of precipitation. Two databases were used for this purpose: in situ observations along the period of 1960–2020 and the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, along the period from 1981 to 2021. We have applied the rescaled-range analysis and the detrended fluctuation analysis for long memory investigation, and the linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods for trend analysis. Results have shown the existence of long memory in precipitation in most parts of Mozambique, being stronger in the southern and central regions, and weakening toward the north of the country.  On the other hand, significant trend signals of precipitation were detected in some isolated areas of Mozambique, presenting an increase in some regions such as the southern part of Manica and eastern of Inhambane provinces, and a decrease in other regions such as the coastal areas of Zambezia and Nampula. These findings indicate that the probability of a random occurrence of precipitation is minimal, and the observed trends are likely to continue for a long period in future. Dry land agriculture should be prepared to adapt to new precipitation regime in the regions mentioned hereof.

Keywords: long memory, trend analysis, precipitation, climate change, Mozambique